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There seems no potential credible investment in 2022,” he told VOA. It is very likely to go back to the status of “the last frontier in Asia” as some people claimed Myanmar in its initial opening in 2012.
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I don’t see a sign of recovery in the coming year for the Myanmar economy.
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“Other neighboring countries show a sign of recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Political analyst Aung Thu Nyein believes any positive recovery of Myanmar’s economy is unlikely. credit rating agency, has revised its growth forecast for Myanmar for 2022 by predicting there will be a -4.4% contraction. In July the World Bank had forecasted Myanmar’s legitimate economy would decline by 18% in 2021. Since the pandemic began, the country has recorded more than 522,000 cases and 19,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data. About 25% of the population is fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Myanmar has a population of nearly 55 million. The resurgence of COVID-19 has hit the economy,” she added. “The economy was beginning to collapse well before the coup due to these very harsh lockdowns that closed businesses and choked the economy. All sectors of Myanmar’s economy were affected, with the tourist, hospitality, construction and garment sectors hit the worst.īut the sliding economy has been apparent since the beginning of last year’s COVID-19 pandemic, Robinson said. dollar in recent months, Robinson’s researched outlined.Ī report by the International Labor Organization (ILO) states there were 1.2 million job losses in the second quarter of 2021. Myanmar business registrations also have fallen by 44% this year, while there have been rapid changes in the valuation of Myanmar’s currency, the kyat, against the U.S. Myanmar’s agricultural, marine, mineral and manufactured exports have slowed, while raw materials and investment imports have also been in decline since 2020. There is a creeping paranoia by the junta that the economy is crumbling around them, and seem powerless to stop the rot,” Robinson said. “General Min Aung Hlaing increased self-reliance, urged people use less fuel, increase use of public transport and walking, consume less edible oil, reduce imports and consume less rice. It’s put pressure on military leadership. With a continuing crackdown, Myanmar’s military enterprises have faced heavy trade sanctions by the U.S., Britain and the European Union. There is a booming illicit economy… and there are growing perceptions of a collapsing licit or domestic open economy,” she said. “It’s clear we are seeing both boom and bust in Myanmar right now. Gwen Robinson, an editor at Nikkei Asia, sponsored an event hosted by the Foreign Correspondent’s Club of Thailand (FCCT) in Bangkok in November, that outlined some of the economic woes in Myanmar. Factories and businesses have also closed, leading to increasing unemployment and lost income. Security Council statement condemning the coup.įearing for their lives, thousands of workers fled their rural homes because of the increased fighting between national soldiers and opposition groups. Global brands have halted orders with Myanmar’s manufacturing industry, while Chinese-made products have been boycotted amid allegations that China supports Myanmar’s military junta. That prompted cash flow problems for the population and businesses, but also the military.Īs the year has gone on, any military-owned or affiliated businesses faced large boycotts. Shortly after the movement began, Myanmar’s bankers joined and refused to go to work. It is a large-scale labor strike campaign with a mission to resist the junta by denting the military-controlled economy. Thousands of citizens have gone on strike, refusing to work under military rule, including healthcare workers, lawyers, teachers and engineers.ĭays after the coup took place nine months ago, the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), was formed. The Southeast Asian country’s economy has been in rapid decline following the chaos of February’s military coup. Myanmar’s economy is crumbling and experts predict more illegal trade and zero growth in 2022.